Rollers

So, Still affter the rollers, I got a stoping starting 40 minutes today. I need to take it easy, I did 5 minutes in the morning just to get some blood flowing.

Oh, if you didn't know it. this morning the stock market tried very hard to crash into a free falling panic... it may not have happened. but.... it was very crazy. everyone trying to recreate the 87 panic.

primaries

I keep joking that it's going to be "Republican Ken" and "Democrat Barbie"... in a Puppet show of Political Clechés theater. Playing on a TV near you through November.

Hippo on a Tightrope

So, I haven't been on the bike for a few months....

Ya Ya what's wrong with you? I know I know.... Been a lot going on...

so, I pulled out the rollers today.....

it was a nice day, and I could have gone outside, but that would have made everything more difficult, for a first attempt....

Then I remembered how hard it was to ride rollers..... a few minutes later, some confidence and I managed to stay upright... only had one incident.

Last year as I realized that my balance and bike handling wasn't what it had been, I wished I could do some time on them to get that great bike handling going again... but oh well....

Good stuff... I like exercise...

so....

I just play with Elliot waves, and want to show people what I'm looking at. I honestly think it's .... Sketchy.... Which is why I refer to my TA as Chart-astrology

The way I trade is more to watch the moves, and try and catch as much of the 3rd wave as I can... and that way I don't' actually have to know where the overall market is going. I am just betting the reversals.

Within that construct I can make long term bets.

In the Bull Market the Mantra is to Buy the Dips, and in the Bear.... Sell the strength. In the early parts it should be safer to hold overnight(and long term) on the short side.

Another note: Say I was a big market mover..... What I would do is buy up the futures, hope to make a short covering rally... or even just some strength, which would give me a chance to get out of my positions higher than the current value.

Elliot Wave Fun.

This is the long Term Scale, since the October highs.... Remember after this Multi week 3rd wave, we still have a 5th wave.... Point being we will hit a false Bottom in the 1340-50s(Based on Elliot waves)

(not lost on my analysis, is that the target is equal to the Friday close(Also worth noting is that, My math isn't precise, since I don't actually look up the specific quote, and guesstimate it from the chart(how is that for disclosure of my sketchy Chartatology.))

This is the short term, The RSI(which I don't picture,but shows it's very hard for us to go much lower in the NearTerm)... I'm looking for a good correction(upmove), But maybe we push lower, either intraday or into the close, but only like 10-20 points or 50-100dow, Maybe we confirm the new low. Maybe this wave will look more like an ABC correction, with a day or 2 uptick. Smart me would wait for a short covering rally to open a new position, maybe a bullish day, and an up futures next day.... Which starts plunging.

My overall Thesis is that we are in the Third Wave(daily) of the Third wave(weekly) of the Third wave(monthly), Meaning Maybe the RSI will hit it's greatest value in this move. Greater than 11-12-2007 Which was the end of the third wave of the November move.

For those of you looking at super cycles, in a 6month to 1 year time frame, this could be the third wave of the first wave in a multi year move. But if this move compleates itself I'd expect the next wave to occur next october-november, and we trade choppy betwixed now and then.... Maybe.

Big Picture Bill Gates

At CES Bill Gates shows his massive vision for the future that shows why Microsoft is in it's dominant Visionary roll, predicts "devices will connect"....... Wow that is fucking amazing..... Eric Makes further Prediction, Devices connecting with Microsoft will regularly crash and have to be restarted, and users will have less control of products they purchased, and advertisers will have more control.

Morning Futures Up 60.....

Voting

I'm politicly active, and have been all my life. I'm not a Zellot, and I've not voted a few times, and resented it every time. Even last opertunity, there was a vote for a council member and some referendums, though it was minor to me, I skipped my opertunity and feel bad about it.

In the 90's I used to say "if you don't vote, you don't get to complain." I remember no shortage of people saying "well my guy didn't win."

Just one of two of the dumbest reasons not to vote.

1. My guy didn't win.... What a fucking loser attitude, what if we only played in games we knew we were going to win. And how would we learn to win, if we didn't lose.
2. Bullshit about my vote doesn't count, followed by bullshit about electoral college. Ok, there are tons of referendums, Tons of local elections. The idea that democrats don't come out to vote for City council, or mayor, or County positions.... Is fucking stupid, S.L. County is 50/50 dem republican.... on anything county wide, your vote counts Huge.

Now, let me just say that I think your fucking Lazy..... and self centered for not playing your had at democracy. I can give you 20 reasons why our democracy is Bullshit. But I'm not going to sit in my sandbox crying about it, and refuse to play, like I'm 4 years old. Realize that is what it is "Things aren't going my way, so I'm going home to suck my thumb"

Fucking Children.