I'm about ready to vomit Stocks. ......And I'm not going to talk about them... Pointed out this morning to ruin my 200 pt run was that Dubja was only going to bail out 80,000 defaulting Sub Prime mortgages.... It's good to not bail out the speculators... I want those fuckers to burn... These are the assholes who have decided to retire at the age of 28 on the gains off of 2 california homes in the past year, but havn't cashed out..... OOPS.... Ok, not going to talk about it.
I'm looking for a pull back next week.
Time to recreate
Friday, August 31, 2007
Gut check
The only reason for the sell off at T-Zero at Uncle ben was just a gut check..... I still think that the "REAL Fear" was a tightening......
I still say Long term Bear..... But we won't see that till next week...... But....
Markets will expect a September Ease.... Question is "Will it happen"
I still say Long term Bear..... But we won't see that till next week...... But....
Markets will expect a September Ease.... Question is "Will it happen"
- loss of jobs
- good drop in housing
- Loss of a major lender(they will ease before anyone "Major" folds)
Here is the key to the ease..
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure...
an immediate .25 cut would be worth a Sept .5.... And an move to neutral in the last 2 would have moved us more into a "Soft Landing".... Day late and a dollar short.....
8:18 am- the SPY is still in support, the IWM is kind of sucking but still in support... Mostly The SMH(semi-s) are trying to break out The QQQQ just showed a double bottom.... Ya... The iwm is holding us back.... but it sucks and is why there will be a Bear......
if your getting beat by the DRF this morning..... You should pick better stocks.
I talk like a fucking genious... but I was a heartbeat from shorting the market yesterday morning.
stock pick of the morning
I think GSS Golden star resources will start slow, and with a market buy it will probably still run 10-15% with gold this morning.. it will need gold to hit 679
Getting a kick out of this.....
So, people have adjustable rate mortgages... and those mortgages went from 2%-6% in a couple years.... Who knows why they didn't try and lock in to the rates when rates were at 2%, but Hindsight is 20/20......
The higher that has gone the higher the foreclosure rate has gone. Naturally.
Some people have 2 kinds of mortgages... interest only, and there is an deflating equity loan... Where you buy your house and as it appreciates you never gain any equity....
Suddenly, there are more homes than there are people to buy them.... and suddenly the prices drop.... over the weekend there was a report that the average price for a home has gone down. this hasn't happened since 1950.... The fast increase in the Fed rate an increase from 2-6 means that the mortgage increases on a 200K home is $8000 per year increase. which is $666 dollars per month. $700 vs $12000 per month. This has flooded the market with homes.
This says we will see the largest recession since 1950 unless it is handled well... which means cut the fed rate.... Yesterday.
The further case for a recession.... Monday we got a report that credit card defaults were increasing. Also Wallmart has a program where you can take cash to them, and it can be withdrawn in Mexico... So if you are an illegal alien worker...sorry, undocumented worker. you can send money home and then they spend it at walmart....Evil bastards. That program, Walmart reported is down in revenue... Which means.... Lower undocumented worker employment. We are about to start loosing even more jobs in the financials. Europe overnight is starting to lose their "Financials". That will be next weeks story, loss of jobs in financials... But that's wont be enough jobs to really make a difference.
The big change will be when people (not in California and Florida) realize that their homes are worth 20% of what they were. But in California and Floridawe will be looking at 30-35% less. Your average million dollar hovel in California suddenly is worth 700,000. on an interest only loan you may as well default, but if your in an arm, you may have a chance.... But you owe 4% on 300,000 you don't have. That is 1,000 per month that....... you're paying for nothing....This is where the Recession comes in, no home building... and a huge hole in all our financial institutions.
My theory of the Real fear in the market is that the fed will raise the rate, which could kick off a depress on. and "Uncle Ben" turns into Nero.
The funny part is that our President, has a plan to bail out the lenders....Well the plan is to stop or slow the foreclosures... this plus some rate cuts will hopefully give us the "Soft Landing" our economy will need to suck up a loss of 20% or our economy...
I hate Dubja.... Why the hell would he step in and try and do the right thing.... Really pissing me off that he is about to make me make some money...
But, these things put together, mean a +130 point run in the DOW right off the bat. Since I am short term Bullish, I bet I just made 5%-10%..... Unless Uncle Ben says the word "inflation" in which case I'm down 1%
After that the Bears will eat me...... Just saying.
The higher that has gone the higher the foreclosure rate has gone. Naturally.
Some people have 2 kinds of mortgages... interest only, and there is an deflating equity loan... Where you buy your house and as it appreciates you never gain any equity....
Suddenly, there are more homes than there are people to buy them.... and suddenly the prices drop.... over the weekend there was a report that the average price for a home has gone down. this hasn't happened since 1950.... The fast increase in the Fed rate an increase from 2-6 means that the mortgage increases on a 200K home is $8000 per year increase. which is $666 dollars per month. $700 vs $12000 per month. This has flooded the market with homes.
This says we will see the largest recession since 1950 unless it is handled well... which means cut the fed rate.... Yesterday.
The further case for a recession.... Monday we got a report that credit card defaults were increasing. Also Wallmart has a program where you can take cash to them, and it can be withdrawn in Mexico... So if you are an illegal alien worker...sorry, undocumented worker. you can send money home and then they spend it at walmart....Evil bastards. That program, Walmart reported is down in revenue... Which means.... Lower undocumented worker employment. We are about to start loosing even more jobs in the financials. Europe overnight is starting to lose their "Financials". That will be next weeks story, loss of jobs in financials... But that's wont be enough jobs to really make a difference.
The big change will be when people (not in California and Florida) realize that their homes are worth 20% of what they were. But in California and Floridawe will be looking at 30-35% less. Your average million dollar hovel in California suddenly is worth 700,000. on an interest only loan you may as well default, but if your in an arm, you may have a chance.... But you owe 4% on 300,000 you don't have. That is 1,000 per month that....... you're paying for nothing....This is where the Recession comes in, no home building... and a huge hole in all our financial institutions.
My theory of the Real fear in the market is that the fed will raise the rate, which could kick off a depress on. and "Uncle Ben" turns into Nero.
The funny part is that our President, has a plan to bail out the lenders....Well the plan is to stop or slow the foreclosures... this plus some rate cuts will hopefully give us the "Soft Landing" our economy will need to suck up a loss of 20% or our economy...
I hate Dubja.... Why the hell would he step in and try and do the right thing.... Really pissing me off that he is about to make me make some money...
But, these things put together, mean a +130 point run in the DOW right off the bat. Since I am short term Bullish, I bet I just made 5%-10%..... Unless Uncle Ben says the word "inflation" in which case I'm down 1%
After that the Bears will eat me...... Just saying.
again with the lack of sleep.
In good news, the DOW futures are looking for 100+gain right off the bat. That will sell off 50. Then we will get Sketchy till "UNCLE BEN" speaks.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Cycling update
I was thinking as I rolled out the door today to do one of my short routes.... "wow, it's been a long time since I've had a flat.". Then Just at the fastest part of my decent today..... Sure enough, There I was with a softening rear wheel, Lucky enough to feel it start getting soft, before I started pushing it at 45 mph. Besides getting hit by cars, I imagine this is the most likely way to get injured... besides someone else hitting you with their bike.
I've been healthy, but Work has been a drag this year. Things for me have been very unsteady, Which has sometimes left me with little energy to put into my bike. Things are getting better, and I'm getting more time on the bike. Unfortunately every chance I get to make money, I have to make the most of.
I'm not sure if I'll go flyfishing this weekend, maybe I'll just do a one day trip. I was thinking about doing 2 overnights.... but I'm just .... I'm just a dumb ass... it's very late, and I need to get to sleep. especially if I intend to put 4 hours on the bike in the morning.
We will see. Mother market is probably going to teach me a lesson tomorrow.
I've been healthy, but Work has been a drag this year. Things for me have been very unsteady, Which has sometimes left me with little energy to put into my bike. Things are getting better, and I'm getting more time on the bike. Unfortunately every chance I get to make money, I have to make the most of.
I'm not sure if I'll go flyfishing this weekend, maybe I'll just do a one day trip. I was thinking about doing 2 overnights.... but I'm just .... I'm just a dumb ass... it's very late, and I need to get to sleep. especially if I intend to put 4 hours on the bike in the morning.
We will see. Mother market is probably going to teach me a lesson tomorrow.
Every day
Damn.... What a long day. hmmmm
every time I post somewhere I try and put a comment in about my blog. It's more for me to express myself than anything else. Gives me a chance to collect my thoughts, and put them down to help me solidify how and what I think, when I get a chance.
For the record, I'm short term bullish(1 week), and long term bearish.
In my opinion if Uncle Ben can not say the word "inflation" the bulls will declare it a win and we will advance. If he doesn't sell us on neutral, then ....
IMHO(and I'm a novice, and a moron) the unseen key is that the market is tragically afraid of a tightening, which is the reason for the falling R2k, and flight to safety. I'm playing a short term bull trend in tech, but I don't think tech or basic materials or utilities will be able to keep us from recession. A tightening would send us into a tailspin we may not be able to recover from.
Point being, I always hate the idea somone would try and glean any usefull stock info from my blog, I'd be more apt to lie about it anyways.
every time I post somewhere I try and put a comment in about my blog. It's more for me to express myself than anything else. Gives me a chance to collect my thoughts, and put them down to help me solidify how and what I think, when I get a chance.
For the record, I'm short term bullish(1 week), and long term bearish.
In my opinion if Uncle Ben can not say the word "inflation" the bulls will declare it a win and we will advance. If he doesn't sell us on neutral, then ....
IMHO(and I'm a novice, and a moron) the unseen key is that the market is tragically afraid of a tightening, which is the reason for the falling R2k, and flight to safety. I'm playing a short term bull trend in tech, but I don't think tech or basic materials or utilities will be able to keep us from recession. A tightening would send us into a tailspin we may not be able to recover from.
Point being, I always hate the idea somone would try and glean any usefull stock info from my blog, I'd be more apt to lie about it anyways.
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