Friday, August 31, 2007
Well.....
I'm looking for a pull back next week.
Time to recreate
Gut check
I still say Long term Bear..... But we won't see that till next week...... But....
Markets will expect a September Ease.... Question is "Will it happen"
- loss of jobs
- good drop in housing
- Loss of a major lender(they will ease before anyone "Major" folds)
Here is the key to the ease..
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure...
an immediate .25 cut would be worth a Sept .5.... And an move to neutral in the last 2 would have moved us more into a "Soft Landing".... Day late and a dollar short.....
8:18 am- the SPY is still in support, the IWM is kind of sucking but still in support... Mostly The SMH(semi-s) are trying to break out The QQQQ just showed a double bottom.... Ya... The iwm is holding us back.... but it sucks and is why there will be a Bear......
if your getting beat by the DRF this morning..... You should pick better stocks.
I talk like a fucking genious... but I was a heartbeat from shorting the market yesterday morning.
stock pick of the morning
Getting a kick out of this.....
The higher that has gone the higher the foreclosure rate has gone. Naturally.
Some people have 2 kinds of mortgages... interest only, and there is an deflating equity loan... Where you buy your house and as it appreciates you never gain any equity....
Suddenly, there are more homes than there are people to buy them.... and suddenly the prices drop.... over the weekend there was a report that the average price for a home has gone down. this hasn't happened since 1950.... The fast increase in the Fed rate an increase from 2-6 means that the mortgage increases on a 200K home is $8000 per year increase. which is $666 dollars per month. $700 vs $12000 per month. This has flooded the market with homes.
This says we will see the largest recession since 1950 unless it is handled well... which means cut the fed rate.... Yesterday.
The further case for a recession.... Monday we got a report that credit card defaults were increasing. Also Wallmart has a program where you can take cash to them, and it can be withdrawn in Mexico... So if you are an illegal alien worker...sorry, undocumented worker. you can send money home and then they spend it at walmart....Evil bastards. That program, Walmart reported is down in revenue... Which means.... Lower undocumented worker employment. We are about to start loosing even more jobs in the financials. Europe overnight is starting to lose their "Financials". That will be next weeks story, loss of jobs in financials... But that's wont be enough jobs to really make a difference.
The big change will be when people (not in California and Florida) realize that their homes are worth 20% of what they were. But in California and Floridawe will be looking at 30-35% less. Your average million dollar hovel in California suddenly is worth 700,000. on an interest only loan you may as well default, but if your in an arm, you may have a chance.... But you owe 4% on 300,000 you don't have. That is 1,000 per month that....... you're paying for nothing....This is where the Recession comes in, no home building... and a huge hole in all our financial institutions.
My theory of the Real fear in the market is that the fed will raise the rate, which could kick off a depress on. and "Uncle Ben" turns into Nero.
The funny part is that our President, has a plan to bail out the lenders....Well the plan is to stop or slow the foreclosures... this plus some rate cuts will hopefully give us the "Soft Landing" our economy will need to suck up a loss of 20% or our economy...
I hate Dubja.... Why the hell would he step in and try and do the right thing.... Really pissing me off that he is about to make me make some money...
But, these things put together, mean a +130 point run in the DOW right off the bat. Since I am short term Bullish, I bet I just made 5%-10%..... Unless Uncle Ben says the word "inflation" in which case I'm down 1%
After that the Bears will eat me...... Just saying.
again with the lack of sleep.
In good news, the DOW futures are looking for 100+gain right off the bat. That will sell off 50. Then we will get Sketchy till "UNCLE BEN" speaks.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Cycling update
I've been healthy, but Work has been a drag this year. Things for me have been very unsteady, Which has sometimes left me with little energy to put into my bike. Things are getting better, and I'm getting more time on the bike. Unfortunately every chance I get to make money, I have to make the most of.
I'm not sure if I'll go flyfishing this weekend, maybe I'll just do a one day trip. I was thinking about doing 2 overnights.... but I'm just .... I'm just a dumb ass... it's very late, and I need to get to sleep. especially if I intend to put 4 hours on the bike in the morning.
We will see. Mother market is probably going to teach me a lesson tomorrow.
Every day
every time I post somewhere I try and put a comment in about my blog. It's more for me to express myself than anything else. Gives me a chance to collect my thoughts, and put them down to help me solidify how and what I think, when I get a chance.
For the record, I'm short term bullish(1 week), and long term bearish.
In my opinion if Uncle Ben can not say the word "inflation" the bulls will declare it a win and we will advance. If he doesn't sell us on neutral, then ....
IMHO(and I'm a novice, and a moron) the unseen key is that the market is tragically afraid of a tightening, which is the reason for the falling R2k, and flight to safety. I'm playing a short term bull trend in tech, but I don't think tech or basic materials or utilities will be able to keep us from recession. A tightening would send us into a tailspin we may not be able to recover from.
Point being, I always hate the idea somone would try and glean any usefull stock info from my blog, I'd be more apt to lie about it anyways.
hmmm
I'm looking to distract myself though.... I need to do something but sit and watch it. I was thinking beer and wings, or maybe some book shopping. I was thinking some work..... I'm still exhausted....
Other than that I still believe in the Bear market..... Don't know how to reconcile that, but...
Chuckle
If Only I had hours to do that this morning......
Oh!!! Coffee
Coffee is on
Questions: What are today's support and resistance levels for the SPY QQQQ IWM smh...
We are probably looking for a pullback before a massive Bull run.... Will the pull back be a 60 point dow pull back. or say a 100 point pull back....... Do I wait for the 60 put some money down then if it hits 100 I double down.
Maybe just play the leveraged ETF's or maybe some of the leaders in basic materials, utilities or
What about uncle Ben? do I hold some cash for a Bear run in what uncle Bernie has to say......
What about a Broader Bear run.....
I managed 7+ hours of beer aided sleep, I've missed the European action... I dig listening to them Whine.... But it's a good barometer rather than CNBC's constant drum beat for the Bull....
Where is that fucking coffee....
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Good day
Other than that, someone sent me a check, I have plenty of work.
Went grocery shopping and picked up a six pack, it will probably put a small hamper on my training... but maybe it will ease some of the stress.
Just watching disturbia, and some of the worst fly fishing I've seen in a movie.
Only thing better, would be if I was asleep 30 minutes ago.
Damn
After my 2 hours of sleep, and early morning Jog. LONG DAY OF TRADING. I completely crashed once the market closed.
Hopefully I'll get out and ride for a couple hours.
And not let Hubris get to me.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Ya, I was trying to get to bed, but it wasn't' working.... well, I'd explain why but you would be disgusted, and then I would be conflicted about the over share... And really I just need to eat more fiber....... Just saying..
Hopefully when I get going in the morning... I have to get off defence and get onto offence... I'm getting my ass kicked.
I'm just trying not to chase....
So.... On the Damn news. apparently there are a lot of cases of cryptosporidium. The state health department has said no kids under 5 in the pool. apparently it's a Fecal issue...
When a parent was asked about it she said.
"well, it's hard to tell your kid... No! you can go into the pool cause you have diariah. Also, you know those diapers sometimes just don't keep the poo in"
LADY!!! YOU STUPID BITCH.... YOUR JOB AS A PARENT IS TO TELL YOUR KID... NO!!!! ALSO, THE DIAPERS ARE A STOP GAP, AND TO BE HONEST A SHITTY ONE, SOME FUCKING COMPANY MADE "POOL DIAPERS" AND SUDDENLY IT'S OK FOR YOUR FUCKING KIDS TO POO IN THE POOL. NON POTTY TRAINED KIDS, SHOULD NOT BE IN THE POOL. BEFORE 2 YEARS OF AGE NO FUCKING POOL, ALSO DO YOU FUCKING UNDERSTAND THE PHYSICS OF POO. IT NEEDS TO NOT BE IN THE POOL, ON YOUR FLOOR, IN YOUR HANDS, ON YOUR FACE.... PEOPLE ARE SO FUCKING STUPID, AND THE GET ALL FUCKING WORKED UP WHEN YOU TELL THEM SIMPLE SHIT LIKE.... DON'T EAT POO!! NO ONE IS INTERESTED IN YOUR KIDS POO BEING ANY PLACE BUT IN A TOILET!!!!!
CAN WE GET SOME NATURAL SELECTION HERE!!!!!! DARWIN I'M STARTING TO DOUBT YOU.
Ugly day......
or
Then... after some midday strength in some of my positions I felt as though we may get a late day rally.
Then my stupid brother called and wanted to chat, and I didn't have the balls to dial tone him. Especially when he argued with me about how much influence the US government has overseas.
Then he made about 50 bad arguments about how these"second life" economy isn't in a continued recession. I don't play second life, but it's obvious that they are in a bust cycle, and he doesn't want to realize it.
Furthermore: the game company are tragically naive, and somehow thought they could create "Las Vegas" in the virtual world. Not realizing that these issues have been delt with. Then using the same arguments that failed when there was tons of Gambling on "The Net". A lot of naive bullshit about "offshore" and "where is the Server"... To which I responded, "Where is the Business Licence" and "what the Federal government does, is stops your ability to take credit cards."
Then to put "Real money" at stake in a multiplayer game is a huge mistake. My real nervousness was that my brother would put a few grand in play speculating a "Virtual" real estate market. which he is probably doing.
So, Fuck!!!! There has to be some stregnth tomorrow. Something.......... everything was beaten today........
It's just giving me a tumor to think about it....
Economics
WTF is the Commercial paper market?????
Well Money people trade these things around, specifcly banks. they also take out loans based on them. Commercal paper, are things like "Loans, and mortgages" that people have taken out and are paying back. Trillions of dollars of these things move about the markets.
The problem happend over a week ago, when Europe realized that they had tons of this crap, and that it was lableled incorrectly. They have ratings on them, and somehow you could roll together 20 B+ papers into a "AAA" paper. Well in truth these things are only worth about 80% of their earlier value. So, Europe locked up the comercial paper market. Refusing to take this "Crap" paper. So the federal reserve had to step in, and apply some cash to help get that market moving again.
The extended problem is that More and more people are waking up to the value of their home being 80% of the ammount they payed for it. This becomes a problem for people who were speculating in the real estate market. Also there are Millions of people who have variable rate loans, and have to renegociate that loan this Fall. There will be a wake up when they realize that they owe 500,000 on a 400,000 house, and the payment is about to go up.
Here is another funny one: The Weakenss in the housing market showed that the "High End" market was still OK. Housing builders then put all their efforts into building 500,000-1million dollar homes....... Well, now there is a Glut of them, so they are worth even less, But no one can afford them.
H.P. delivers new "dog" shit products.
Seriously, the pitch is "you can surf for a restaurant to take your clients to for dinner, from the copier."... Alright get this.
"Ok, Mr. Gates looks like we have a deal. Let me take you to dinner."
"ok."
"just one moment, "Bleep bleep, bleep" WTF is the Printer jammed, Unfucking real... Now I have ink all over me."
"umn.... we will just hit the drive in on the way to the airport."
Oh and did I mention Gwen Steffanie has designed some content for them to let you use for free.
the HP CEO is giddy about it, Gwen and a surfing copier.... Someone slap that man
Monday, August 27, 2007
Well, here we are....
The reason why, well it seems without an audience it's hard to blog. I'd do ok if I didn't know that no one was reading... But I know better. Without some kind of audience, that you keep in mind as you write, it's difficult to put "Pen to Paper" or hands to keyboard, as is more apropos. The blog has improved, which I give credit to the endorphins from the new intensity of bike riding. It just wasn't enough. Hopefully having one more person one more "Regular", here will help. To be honest there are about 4 regulars, and 2 or 3 irregulars here to the blog.
Watching traffic, I keep being compelling enough that people are reading the blog spontaneously..... Probably not because I ramble on and on about who is or isn't reading.
Movie fest
One was Reign Over Me, it's a touching drama, with not too much touching bullshit.
another was.... Black Sheep
If you can appreciate a Zombie horror movie. this baby is a winner.
The movie festival was prompted by my need to watch "28 weeks later". After which I felt like I needed to see some good Zombie movies. Cause that one was half assed.
I re watched 28 days later, and that is a brilliant zombie movie...
But still .... Why didn't the zombies eat Coma Guy....
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Black Sheep.... It's a sheep Zombie movie.... You can't get better. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0779982/
"Infected by what?" ....... "Rage!, they are infected with Rage"
Top 10 Zombie movies- In no particular order.
Resident evil( I grant she was hotter in 2... but one is a better movie)
night of the living dead 1968
dawn of the dead 1978's version
dawn of the dead dead 2000 version
28 days later- Renamed "Why didn't the zombies eat comma guy"
Evil dead
army of darkness
evil dead 2
Bio Zombie(japan's answer to Night of the living dead)
(there is a movie that is .... australia's answer to night of the living dead, which is directed by peter Jackson.... It's hilarious)
Friday, August 24, 2007
Ya, more blathering
Stock market is fun, the bull showed it's horns today. If it gets a little ahead of itself I'm looking like I'll have to take some profits..... I'm hidden fairly well. Makes me nervous just to be in that market. Wall street in the short run is bullshit, All hype and overbuy and oversell. Regardless of the fact Microsoft is a POS it still may run for a few months as people realize that is Garbage and Vista is crap. See, if your spending CapEx money your better off putting it into the hardware right now, there arn't any good software plays. Wireless and GigaEther are good upgrades, but when your still choked at the gateway, who gives a crap. maybe I'll start shorting it at earnings.
My big question is "Will Gold Run". If we are actually in a recession I'll get killed. A couple of unwarented kicks back and as someone said "it will go to $4000"
Gold ran $9.50 today, which I didn't see coming, I figured a $5 run at best. Somewhere between here and its resistance level of $680. it's currently trying to get out of it's trading range. I suspected today's move for sometime next week.....
I'm still not sure about it's future. but I still suspect a $700+ run.
I have all these impulses to chase the dragon..... grrrr. I'm not talking about heroin, I'm talking about chasing trains that already left. instead of the good ones about to leave.
If the R2k starts to run, I'm thinking it will be time to take profits.
Time to make the doughnuts
Ben Stein said 35 billion in subprim. Aparently Asia has half of it, I bet 75% of the remaining is in europe, and the rest is in hedgefunds or purchased by . At 10% default rate it's a nominal amount of money relative to the mortgage market and the US Market or the Global market.
But But But if new housing starts get cut in half, which means that half those companies go belly up that build houses. The loss of mortgage jobs. loss of ancilary jobs.
Also, the loss of Fractional reserve money, lost with the industry.... Which means 10/1 loss. to the economy. Stein says 67 billion possible loss to the economy, but that is only in morgage loss. at 10/1 that is 67 billion loss to the economy.
and Real estate is 12% of the economy and if that gets cut in half. That means a loss of 5% of the economy... I think that is fairly significant.
The real questions: Beyond my probably overestimation of 5% loss of the economy, and loss of Fractional reserves created by the Loans... roughly 1.5 Trillion which is still only 12% loss to the economy..... if that number is correct, that will kick off a solid recession.
Now, if it's only say a 3% loss, it could still kick off a lot of nerves in the economy, and still kick off the big R word....
Well, I'm totally talking a game I know very little about, and most the numbers are out my ass.
Not to not be a Bull, but That's what I think.
I have many questions about deflation, I guess with the loss of these loans. We could see less money supply.
Question is Where to run? Guess I could buy gold into every fed week, in case there is a cut.
Looking at AAUK
I'm just hoping we don't go all red leading with the Semi's
oil will run a couple of bucks today I say $71.50
Gold up .50
And I'll take a nap about 10
I could use a smoke!!
I'm kind of hating the blog.... It's not anything that you have done. Just, I was feeling crappy and wanted to blog it, then felt like I couldn't. Which is good because I hate being a Whiney bitch. I seem to enjoy when I blog my observations rather than talk about me. Interesting thing is that over the past week I've been getting more interest by the random readers who stumble into this blog.
The pictures from the phone suck. I think that adds something to the blog. Not sure what though.
I've consumed
http://ondeepbackground.blogspot.com/
it's a runner with an eating .... Issue. it's been good.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
more of the road
I put in a bunch of miles. Felt like I needed to get out, but stoped myself from a beer binge... but I was tired. it would be good for me to spend time with more people. Specialy atractive woman who can stand me...... But where do I find those....
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
I'm declaring web 3.0
I have a couple of reservations: Making 55-65k in NYC is like making 30K here, which is a pay cut. Also, I hate big city living, which will cut into my .... Well the small joys in my life, will go away, Hiking and biking. The probability of getting hit by a car goes up by like 4K percent. Besides being able to buy things I want, when I want, going to any movie I want. and decent restaurant food.(have I mentioned the bad Tai food I had in Wyoming, I was lucky there were noodles).... I hate big city living, and would give it up, in a heartbeat and live in BFE Oklahoma.....
Cramer is trying to convince me that gamestop is going somewhere(besides massive Walstreet Hype(but that will be good for 10x reasonable PE)....
Web 3.0..... Mobil web, to the point of it being anythign that alows you to not be tied to a desk. Iphone, Blackberry Only more powerfull, and finaly taking over your home desktop. Interface with your phone and having fast high resolution mobile access, New Keyboards, new mobile high resolution displays. Tubby and his Internet Belt pack, he will think he is batman with his utility belt, but still he will be a sweaty sitting POS waiting for his turn in the ER with the shock Padles.
Alright, on the bike for me.
going to NYC would be a great way to start stalking sarah again..... *rolles eyes*... I think I'm not going.....
stocks and blogs
Just my moron opinions, stock wise....
I think we are going lateral for the next 3 months. over the next 2 days I think we will get a quick bump in the market which I'm probably going to short, depending on where the biggest action is. but I do think that unless there is some big news like a hedge fund or bank taking a dive. we will get either one or 2 more up days.
If the dive is large enough it is going to make Dylan Rattigain Cry which will be worth the money I've lost in the past month.
In more foolish news, I think I just caught another Top. *shrug*. won't be the first time, or last. Maybe it's just consolidation/accumulation.
I think that Cramer is wrong about.... Well about a lot, but the fed is going to let everyone hang, not realizing what a bunch of Shit bags they are, as predatory lenders, to Blue Collar guys making $10 bucks an hour. Are getting foreclosed on, because they don't know what an Adjustable Rate mortgage is. Included will be, huge losses in his Pension plan.
But what does any of that matter, because we have to let the market correct. Not to mention that he is this markets #1 consumer as he buys 2 cell phones a year, Ipods, a new computer, and his leveraged to the max 20K on his credit cards. It's ok, he can lose his house, and go bankrupt.....
Uncle Ben, I'm sorry to say, but the speculators, and the subprime bond creators, are a thousand miles away from this now. And it's just a matter of who is left in the game of musical chairs...... I agree piss the Banks and the Hedge funds, real estate speculators... Etc. But the truth of the matter is that Joe Schmo will be the one who loses, But without him this economy dies. Don't worry he will keep working and buying his way to happyness, but with much less money.
At best the Fed pulled a head fake, to keep the banks from freezing up.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
still tired
Well, as I try and go down for the night. Just want everyone to know I'm thinking of all of you. not sure about the wierd vibes in the universe.
On another note. I'm thinking I'll watch million dollar baby again, great movie, cept when it slows down and I want to jump out a window during that last hour.
hmm, maybe I'll go through the movie collection. I'd like something that would make me feel better.
a tale of 3 woman.
Crystal is on a thing, I think she doesn't realize it's fall. Which means it's time to gather up all the nuts and get ready for winter. I'm thinking something has happened or is about to happen with her boyfriend. She is too good for him. Here is the thing about crystal, she is that woman I should have dated in High School, and never did. Because I was stupid. She is smart, and beautifully. Overall Under appreciated.
So, just to keep the Karmic Wheels Under the Vehicle, this woman I'm sort of dating. The problem is I just have no shot of being in love with her.... I probably shouldn't be dating her.
midnight feed
and what are we feeding on......
Well since the earlier nacho's and fruit didn't get me to bed. I've moved on to cheese and garlic and some bread. I usually have some heavy meat and good mustard to go with my cheese. It helps that things are difficult to digest. as opposed to sugar and simple carbo's, Once I get my body jacked up it's hard to get it to gear down, and I could go through bread and snacks all night. Hopefully this will get me down for a few hours.....
does it matter, or is this important, not really.
Monday, August 20, 2007
oh..... Here is one
But the bullshit about demolitions at the building or somehow that the fire couldn't have brought the building down. OK, I've built buildings, and I'm surprised most roofs don't collapse under the rain.
But do the math. you have enough kinetic energy to push a plane of 60 tons, 3000 miles. And you are kidding yourself that that isn't enough energy to knock the building down. It's probably enough energy to push it down 20 times.
In a sky scraper, all you have to do is destroy a few critical sections of the building. Moreover if you just weaken sections of the building in the wrong way. That will bring a building down. I understand that buildings falling are unprecedented. But the idea that a fueled jet liner would bring one down, was actually researched, and unfortunately this is probably where the terrorists got the idea. I wish I could remember the source, but it's long been forgotten, to protect the government and the author.
I'm a huge fan of conspiracy theories, but these ones aren't even good. I just find in embarrassing that someone wants to defend this crap. I have more respect for Intelligent design people, at least they are deluded, and brainwashed. These people are morons.
Someone actually did start this with me.
(and this is how I'd like to remember, that it happened(alliteration intended))
"there were detonations in the Twin Towers"
me, "Seriously, I'm not stupid, don't try and jerk my chain. There are people who died in this and your disgracing their memory."
But there were little explosions as it came down.
Me, "that's the stupidest shit I've ever heard, whoever is feeding you this bullshit is Super fucking Crazy. You can't be that dumb."
"I don't think you have looked into it."
me, "yes, I have and I was suprised the building lasted as long as it did. Plenty of buildings partialy colapse all the time. without fire or anything, what goes up must come down."
"How can a building fall in 15 seconds"
"..... at 32 feet per second per second."
current speed-total distance
32-32
64-96
96-192
160-358
192-540
224-764
256-1020
288-1308
320-1628
352-1970(the building height is 1776(American revolution tie in)
384
416
448
480
512
It takes less that 10 seconds for stuff to fall that far, but add some time for it to be slowed down by destroying other floors but the shit at the top is comming down at Hundreds of feet per second. At 3 seconds the debrie is falling down with more force than a Cat 5 Hurricane.....
You fucking people.....
I hate republicans and Dubya as much as anyone, but this stuff makes you sound stupid.
......
Let me just say Officially I'm sorry Chamois girl. I was wrong, and I was being a Dick... I'm sorry and hope you keep riding.
again
I have been thinking about renaming the blog "The lonely road", I'm hoping to get out and ride the bike for 4 hours this evening.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Lazy.....
Ok, I should do some prep for next week.
Friday, August 17, 2007
The universe is all crazy out there
The funny thing is that in 3 moves and 3 months to a slight ease, he could have done the same thing that he is having to do now in one month. Instead of being proactive being reactive is going to kick his ass. And BTW bring on more of the Dreaded inflation he so Fears.... Time to grow up Little Boy.
Yep, I'm In hell.
I'm just kind of going with this... I mean the feeling. Not fighting it, letting it ride. I'm not sure what it is. I just feel lousy, I'm not sure if it's dinner tomorrow. Could be a reminder of something I saw in the past 24 hours. Maybe Just some gastric distress. all I know is I feel lousy, and can't sleep.
I'm haunted by it all, I'd like to get stoned and make it all go away, or drink till it's just missing.
Oh, BTW 3 more dead to earthquakes in that mine, People are so fucking stupid. I literally heard a newscaster finally bite on that. Those fucking coal mining company, puts those people down there working their asses off so they can make a decent living. Get them killed and then go in denial about the fact they killed them, and spin it so that somehow it's not their fault, it's a fucking Bullshit Earthquake. PEOPLE ARE SUCH FUCKING MORONS.
Fucking wall street. The financial firms buy all these crappy mortgages, and pass them off to anyone foolish enough to buy them.... BTW at fucking 4-6% return, which is just over what a CD or a Money market will get you. Then they all take a bath, not understanding why no one trusts that they aren't the ones holding onto this bad paper. Personally I know they dumped them, because they wouldn't touch that crappy return for anything. So, it's dumped on some Retirement funds, and some insurance funds... and maybe a little in some Hedge Funds.
This causes a sell off in the financials, which then Kicks the hell out of some of the hedge funds, which means they have to sell off anything they can sell for some money. Which means every decent stock Dies. Then this is going to cause even more sell offs. Because I shit you not 90% of stocks are held by Hedge funds.
All of this was caused by the Federal reserve, who created and motivated dumb asses to over purchase and speculate on Real Estate, to try and promote wealth. Sure enough, the shit got over purchased, and tons of people without the value of that real estate increasing, will have a hard time making their payments. Causing more foreclosures. a Foreclosure means the value of the real estate goes down to about 60%.
well, maybe if I drink some milk......
Thursday, August 16, 2007
The Thursday meltdown
In my vein of "shit I don't want to do". I can be an extremely supportive friend. So I've been locked into a dinner with someone tomorrow. which is something I don't want to do. Cept I have to be a supportive friend. I don't want to, nobody does this shit for me. I'm trying to get away from stuff like this. How can I find sucker friends who I can just talk constantly about myself and ..... Oh!!! that is you blog.
I digress...
So I sit here, just finished a rootbeer, feeling stupid for feeling bad.....
Wishing I could fall asleep to wake up again and start tomorrow, Hopefully it will be better.
I've unfortunately confirmed my plans for tomorrow, but it totally blows any plans to ride my bike tomorrow. Unless I get up and ride through the market opening tomorrow.....
Continued nonsence.
I don't even want to think about that......
find something to eat.
good god!!!
I just read a stock post which said "tonight we Dine in Hell", then a little later he sugjests that... You know it's just money with stupid little pictures on it. if it's that important, print your own, just dont' try and spend it.
Trying to figure out if I should go eat wings and do some drinking, or scrape through the coins and my bank accounts to find some more money to dump in......
I think I'm to lazy to do either...
Dylan just kind of freaked out on CNBC, .. he has been spending weeks trying to be the voice of reason and keep people in control. I wonder though that as a "journalist" your responsibility is to let the truth come out, not to manipulate the emotions. Like It was said a week ago.... The problem is when people realize their homes are only worth 80% of the appraisal, and you cant sell or get financing.
The financials have been nailed by this, and have just about locked up the Credit market. and taken down with their Hedge funds, which are taking down the market.
The bad signs are that CFC country wide financial, it sounds like they can't get any credit, which may force them into bankrupsy. Here is the thing, those guys are just giving honest loans to honest people if they go under, this just shows how fucked up this market is, and how bad it will get out on "Main Street". For some reason the FED Reserve doesn't realize how bad this is. Also the idea that somehow they deserver to be shooken out of our economy. They are crazy, they won't care even if millions are "out of their homes". Fore some reason they don't realize that the issues in the "stock market" are just showing problems in the economy.....
My thoughts are deteriorating into Chaos.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
My God!!!!
I start watching this show, thinking that it will be interesting.
Let me just start with the list of the dysfunction.
- dad has a pierced eyebrow, and is like 45
- the family has no kitchen table
- mom is bulimic(and still 40 pounds overweight)
- the two sons are 14 and like 12 and sleep in bed with mom.... No report on where dad sleeps, but with the eyebrow piercing... I suspect not with mom.
- Mom eats chips and and what she calls cappichino, but for some reason they come in 32 oz insulated cups. I'm suspecting it's a latte.
- Mom has no idea how to cook. as her roasting a beet shows. she tried to do it over the burner.... but that her idea of eating is latte and chips... should give you some idea of her culinary skills.
- The whole family seems to think that anything vegetable like tastes nasty. They can manage fruit.
The host mentions as a scare tactic that the kids may cut 10 years off their life span, well she is wrong, they could easily cut 40 years off their lives being significantly overweight at 12-14.
One of the kids is having a fit because the Video games and TV are going. "we are going to get through this"(if only I could get rid of my TV, and I wouldn't have to watch this crap.
So, they can't manage to sleep in their beds. Some of this stuff is amazing, first that it goes on, second that they are willing to share it all with the world..... I'd think it was a put up job, but....
I suspect that the family needs a good therapist, before they can manage their weight issues.
Seriously, our capitalist structure wants you working till your miserable, then consuming till you think your happy. then back to work to pay for it all.
This is what I like about the stock market, everyone knows that no ones word is worth shit. They are all a bunch of thieving bastards, and the more they deny it the more likely it is that it's true.
The charm to be an American business man and have Zero Credibility. This is the reason that the financial stocks are selling off, and are currently worth 60% of their value from a month ago. Cause some of them are going down. The big question is if a Bank will go down, and if so, which one.
Well Asia is selling off, and Europe.
The funny thing is that the Dow Jones Industrial index has sold off at 10%, but what you don't realize is that allot of the rest of the market has sold off 20%. The biggest issue is that the Hedge funds, that literally run "The Market" are taking it up the Popper. if the investors bail out of those, we can assure that there will be another 10% down.
My new picture series
I'm calling it "The Lonely road"
I've taken to taking pictures of the road when that feeling that this road is just going to go on and on forever. The Pity is that is some of them you have a hard time seeing that the road literally goes on for like 5 miles and you can see it and that is just one stretch. of the road for the day.
I had a bout with several Utah county drivers today (these are the real Mormons, this is Provo, home of BYU, where the men are mostly woman, and it makes the other men nervous.)
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Ugh 1.0
Parts of me have shifted, my muscles don't have that good flowing motion that they had. When your on the bike, and things are correct, both legs work constantly, in a nice flowing motion. One leg pushes down as the other pulls up, then they reverse in a nice smooth motion, applying even constant pressure to the road.
Furthermore, during my first week I realized that hiking wasn't pushing my cardiovascular system like cycling does. Seems like you just don't make your Heart pump and lungs bleed like you do when cycling.
I've also had a difficult time getting to the proper pace with my diet, I'm not sure why. I don't seem to like to eat, Also I consume so much protein, that it's messing with my digestive tract...
Point being, I'm out on the bike and I just suffer......
for the first 10-20 minutes you just warm up, your legs are stiff, you get settled in your bike shorts, feel like your properly dressed for the weather. Then at about mile 2 or 3 you start working, your legs become flush with blood, you shift up or down in gear depending on how steep the road is and how bad the cross wind or head wind is. Always trying to maintain a constant pressure with the road. Until you find yourself in the flow..... Well at that point hopefully your body just maintains and you mind starts to wander. Thinking about all the things going on. Certainly you can focus on your biking, obsess about if you could be putting in a little more effort or should be putting in a little less.
On one of my routs, at about 8 or 9 miles, that is where I just ride this long slow road, it's uphill, lonely just a long white line leading on for what seems like forever. This is new for me, I've ridden this route a thousand times, and usually I can just zone out for this entire stretch. but not lately. these days I tend to suffer. constant suffering, sore hands sore shoulder, sore core, twitches in my knees...... It's like that road just goes on forever. Somewhere at mile 12 or so this road finally gives up and I hit the base of the oquirre mountains, I turn and follow the base of them around until finally I turn down hill for a fast decent for about 8 or so miles, back down into the city. at roughly mile marker 25 I have to cut across some very serious traffic for a left turn. then it's a fairly flat return of about 10 miles..... Once I get back, I'm done. I have a glass of juice with protein powder in it, drink half a gallon of water, shower..... Which involves giving my head a good thump about why I do this to myself, and I nearly weep with all the fatigue. I'd fall to my knees and just lay there if I didn't know there was a comfortable bed about 15 feet away that would be by far more comforting.... Then after about 30 minutes, I can eat, and over the course of about an hour and a half, I finally start feeling like I'm not going to die, and may just feel better.
Ya!! super fun...
and now the truth is, that is a typical 2-3 hour ride. and I need to start extending that to 3-5 hours...... Those are the ones that I fall down and cry in the shower. and can barley stand or use stairs.
More Blood on wallstreet.
We did break the trend yesterday, but mostly because, I think the big brokers turned off their big trading machines, but today they are back on.
What is going on, you ask. Well there are these things called commercial paper, meaning they are pieces of paper that have value. They are traded among financial institutions instead of cash. So... in the commercial paper are the "sub-prime" loans. Which are loans to people who had unverified credit, of these people 1 in 10 or 2-10 are going into default. because since the value of real estate isn't increasing, that additional value can't be counted on. The appreciating value was assisting people on "Turning Over" the Real Estate and being able to give that "Commercial paper" value.
Now, that commercial paper isn't being trusted, and when one financial institution tries to hand it off, no one will trust it. suspecting that instead of being "Quality Paper" it's one of these sub prime or Alt-A loans. which they don't want to get dumped on them. That no one will trade this commercial paper, means that transactions between financial institutions are almost frozen.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
You have new Picture Mail!
Well, I was just messing around with that, looks like I can't send video from my phone to the blog.... that is little grant, playing in the river.
Blog..
I don't know why I'm posting this, maybe so I make a bit of a promise to the blog and hopefully follow through.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
What a day...
Oh, and my father's idea of having a conversation is that if he can stay on the same general topic, that counts.
I'm so fucking tired I can't stand it. I would love to have some nice pills to just put me down when I'm ready. Hopefully I'm going to get a good ride in tomallllly.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Stock Watch
I want to call a Bear market for 3 months, It's mostly going to be lateral moves though. But, the weakness in great wallstreeet loved stocks like RIMM(Research in motion(blackberries) and FWLT(foster Wheeler-construction equipment) and CAT(construction equipment) RIO (Mining) and AAPL(Lame ass, Ipod with a phone attached) are, in my humble opinion, at a bottom. Basic materials, and international exposure stocks have been overly sold by the Hedgfunds, as they try and recover from their stupid investment in High Risk Mortgage Loans, and have had to sell off favored stocks to cover the losses. This is what accounts for the "Market Correction", Which should just translate into a feeding frenzy for anyone smart enough to jump in and feed.
But in this market gold and it's sundry items should kick ass. Stay away from American consumers, stay away from financials. We will get a tally on the blood letting from the Hedgfunds, especially the "black Box" hedge funds in the next couple of weeks. which will drive more weakness in these stocks.
I did have the opinion the other day that I could call a bottom when Dylan Rattigan cracks on air.
Further note to J-funk... In the next year or 2 the housing market in Seattle will bottom and you should get a good deal on a house, but you will probably need a good deposit. Which is where a self created 401k comes in you can use it for the down payment for a first house with no penalties. If your afraid of "Mother Market" which you should be, there are things called ETF's that you can use to safely buy corporate bonds at say 5-7% till you get less afraid to invest at your comfort level. Also, I think even in cash I get 4 or 5% just for holding cash in the account. But hell things like basic material miners, steel and copper, nickle, Uranium..... These will pull a great return in then next few years, especially uranium.....
Thursday, August 9, 2007
political dipshitery.
I just want to let you know, that I haven't forgotten about you. You see, the thing is besides the ongoing struggle between me and my intestines there isn't much going on besides bike riding and work. I'm trying not to share.
I did see our numb-nuts dip shit president, talk twice over the past two days. What is it about him that makes me want to punch him in the mouth, is it that he thinks he is making points and making persuasive arguments, when he is just speaking "Dipshitery" and using circular logic. We have created more terrorism by sending troops to Iraq, so we need to send more troops to iraq. Is it the definition of hubris, that you don't realize that you are creating, through your lack of awareness of your limitations. That your actually creating your own problems.
Then Mitt Romney, who thinks that getting him elected is Service to the Country. What a Self-Serving Cunt, and that man should never even be considered for nomination. Tremendous numbers of republicans use politics to serve their Real estate development interests.... what do is sons do.... Real estate development.
Ok, that's enough.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
I don't watch the news
"Seismic event at time of collapse"(Ya, a mine collapse is a seismic event, moron. it's like saying "increased humidity at time of Flood."
Also, that the origin of the seismic event was disputed..... See, every thing is "Disputed", the key is that just cause some asshole is trying to get out of his liability, doesn't mean there is any dispute.
Then this morning, " If miners found alive, they may be able to be rescued."
The information provided by local news is so useful.
*update, this is still going on, why isn't the story "mine executives try to blame collaps on earthquake." Continued idiotic adherence to ridiculous claim, show massive copability on the part of the mine.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
I'm very tired
"Like Gawd, have you even used your Xbox Latly!@!!! it's so 2 years ago."
This hits a nerve, hey kids there is a whole world going on outside your computer, and console. Real life, it exists. and the unfortunate reality of what is going on out there is a lot to handle, when you realize your not the dude from HALO.
BTW that "hot chick" doesn't really spend that much time at the console, you just can't maintain that body that way.... Sorry, she is lying.
A lot of this comes up because I saw the last "John Candy" movie, that he had a heart attack while filming that took his life. Every time I see him I think of what a tragic loss it was. I looked at him on that movie, and said "damn, this must be one of his last, it looks like he can barley stand up."
Friday, August 3, 2007
Update
Sorry dude, just not taking you out to dinner for your 35... Tough shit asshole. Honestly, I hope it's twice as shitty as mine.
If you look at it, you may want to think about how long someone will put up with you being a negative person in someones life, or a Soda stealer.
Ya, I'm jealous, beautiful wife, great job, new kid, tons of money.... and you have the balls to wine to me about it all, makes me want to punch you in the face.....
As I have to spend time next week begging some dude to pay me the $200 clams he owes me.
Yes you have been a shitty friend, no amount of apologies or "We keep meaning to......" gets you there.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
This was funny
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
My morning ...... Comunal
It's interesting to get up, with the idea that Dawn is about to break, and that I need to "Get moving". I feel like Rockey, as I suit up and hop on the bike. All Groggy, I should put the sound track on my mp3.
New client, problem is there is no money in this, I just want to get in and out as fast as I can.