Tuesday, December 11, 2007

*caugh caugh*

The niquil tonight isn't doing it's magic... of course now that I've written it so many times it's "NyQuil".

Ok, some economics....

Your governments says that mainline inflation is 3.5%
and core inflation is 2.1%

so you ask, what is the difference....

Well apparently the Federal reserve(not actually Federal, but a private institution). after the Oil shock to inflation in the 70's started discounting food and energy.....

so here we are in the year 2007 and sure enough food and energy throws an increase of 40% to the inflation figure......

And there are plenty of people who think it's unreasonable to count inflation Ex-food and energy.... Hence Inflation Ex-Inflation...

So, our federal reserve tries, to maintain the Fed funds rate(rate they loan money) at 1% above inflation........
So, they also have announced that they will add food and energy.. into consideration.

Which means that the fed rate should go below 4.5%.... Well they cut today to 4.25%... Well they are trying... Basically this means that they are loaning money at a rate below inflation... Which encourages more Inflation...

Well there are those who think the 2.5% is a joke, and measure it in the 8-10% range...

Which means that things double in price every decade... Which is the way it is... Cars are 30-50K 20 years ago they were 10-20K.... (but apparently they go faster, or are nicer or more modern, so that is seen as deflationary(ya, whatever floats their boat)).

So I used a model of a candy bar as an example... when I was able to buy them they were a quarter 1980-1990, then .50 1990-2000.. now they are like a $1.50....

Honestly you have to account for size differences, there was a period when chocolate was expensive and they had to add fillers, and reduce sizes of some bars... And When they moved to .50 they made them slightly bigger... and now that they are $1.50... and are larger... But In my defence if you can depreciate a car cause it's faster, you have to inflate a candy bar because people are fatter.

I called this candy bar inflation.... then I looked it up and it's a metric people use.... I mean not credibly... but shit.

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