I love the stock market. Not because I'm making money hand over fist, (I'm doing ok). It's impressive that it's completely irrational. It's emotional, and Moodie, it's one of the most human things in business. CNBC lines up person after person, applying some kind of sense to it. Everyone having an opinion, and day after day it comes down to the Truth of it. I don't care how many PHD's you have in economics, or how "Dialed in" to "the street" you are, it comes down to one thing..... are there more sellers or buyers?
Today the Dow is posting a 200pt loss, all because the stuff that is no good (home builders, real estate, Sucks and still isn't hitting a bottom(It seems like people who build homes don't want to stop doing it, regardless of the excess inventories... They are subject to their own momentum)). This has been going on for damn near a year, every time they call a bottom to it, it shows a little more downside. Which isn't exactly fair since it's not like people won't keep wanting and buying some homes. (to be honest there is this whole thing about how money works, and how credit and lending affects the money supply, which is why there is real fear because of this).
The key to picking a bottom(according to some) is when there is "Real" fear, out there the kind of fear when people are jumping out of windows kind of fear. When we see home builders unable to sell homes at a profit, or they are so broke they can't build new homes. There will be the bottom. Real Fear from the home builders. I wan't to see them cry.
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